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Top 5 Reasons I'm Bullish on Alaska 

Writer: Jenny Willardson, CCIM
Jenny Willardson, CCIM
12 minutes ago
7 min read

By Jenny Willardson, CCIM, Principal Broker



Gas near $5 a gallon stings. On Nov. 4, AAA put Alaska's average for regular at $4.72 a gallon, about 90 cents higher than a year earlier and well above the $4.12 national average.


But I help clients make 10- and 20-year bets on Alaska real estate, and past the pump I see five big reasons for optimism.


1. New oil is flowing


Pikka is bringing new North Slope oil into production now, while construction at Willow supports investment and jobs ahead of its planned 2029 startup.


  • Pikka (Santos and Repsol) reached first oil in May 2026 and briefly topped its 80,000-barrel-a-day target in the third quarter. It was producing about 69,000 barrels a day at the end of September during a planned slowdown for water injection, and Santos expects to return to 80,000. Santos has said a second phase could double capacity to 160,000.

  • Willow (ConocoPhillips) remains on track for first oil in early 2029, the company said in August, with peak construction spending now behind it. ConocoPhillips estimates peak output at about 180,000 barrels a day.

  • The state's January forecast projected 1,000 new oil and gas jobs in 2026, an 11% jump.


These are big checks. Santos committed about $2.6 billion to Pikka's first phase, and Willow's estimated cost is $8.5–9 billion. Willow is expected to produce about 600 million barrels over its life.


Why it matters: oil and gas companies headquarter in Anchorage and hire locally. That can support demand for office, warehouse and industrial yard space across Southcentral.


2. Critical minerals


The U.S. relies on imports for minerals used in batteries, electronics and defense. Alaska can help close that gap.


  • Governor Dunleavy says Alaska has known resources of 57 of the 60 U.S. critical minerals.

  • Graphite Creek, north of Nome, is the largest known graphite deposit in the U.S., according to the U.S. Geological Survey as cited by developer Graphite One. The U.S. currently imports all of its natural graphite.

  • The 211-mile Ambler Road to the Ambler Mining District in Northwest Alaska won federal approval in October 2025. Environmental groups have sued in federal and state court to stop it.


The federal government has closed a $35.6 million investment for about a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals, a partner in the Ambler Metals joint venture developing the district. In February, regional Native corporations NANA and Doyon signed an agreement with state agencies that the Anchorage Daily News reported softened their resistance to the road. Field crews are doing geotechnical, hydrology, fish habitat and permafrost studies along the corridor this year.


It isn't settled. A conservation-group study estimates the road could cost more than $2 billion.


Why it matters: critical-mineral development could become a larger source of investment and demand for Alaska's logistics and industrial infrastructure.


3. Defense investment


Alaska sits between Asia, Russia and the Lower 48, and Washington is investing accordingly.


  • $441 million appropriated for Alaska military construction in FY 2026, which Sen. Sullivan's office calls the most in eight years

  • About $2.6 billion in Alaska military construction and project authorizations in the FY 2027 defense bill the Senate Armed Services Committee advanced in June. The House passed its version in July, but the Senate hasn't, so it isn't law yet.

  • About 2,000 more service members and families, according to the Air Force, which flagged community needs for housing, childcare and medical care


Separately, the FY 2026 defense authorization bill included $88 million for Fort Wainwright and nearly $30 million for Eielson. In April, the Air Force asked private developers for proposals to build AI data centers on about 4,700 acres at JBER, Eielson and Clear Space Force Station. That's a solicitation, not a signed deal.


Why it matters: more personnel and construction can mean more demand for housing, childcare, medical office and retail near JBER and the bases up north.



Anchorage is one of the world's busiest cargo hubs, and a newly funded rail line could put the Mat-Su on the map too.


  • Air: Anchorage ranked first in the U.S. and third worldwide in reported 2025 cargo volume, at nearly 3.9 million tonnes. That count includes transit freight, which the other top-10 airports don't include. Geographically, Anchorage sits within a 9.5-hour flight of nearly 90% of the industrialized world.

  • Sea: The Port of Alaska handles about 75% of the state's inbound cargo and is in the middle of a $2.75 billion modernization.

  • Rail: On Oct. 19, the U.S. Department of Transportation awarded $249 million to finish the 32-mile rail link from Port MacKenzie to the Alaska Railroad main line near Houston.


Alaska's international airports are credited with 26,000 jobs and $2.3 billion in economic activity. At the port, work began in March 2026 on an $807 million cargo terminal replacement. In July, the federal government agreed to pay Anchorage $180 million to settle a lawsuit over earlier failed port work, and the mayor says that money will go to construction.


Why Port MacKenzie matters. The state spent $180 million on this rail line between 2005 and 2017, when work stopped. Finished, it would be the shortest rail route from the Interior to tidewater. Borough studies estimate heavy cargo could ship through Port MacKenzie for 36% less than through Seward.


Potential users include mines, military equipment headed to Interior bases, and new industry at the port. Nova Minerals plans an antimony refinery along the line. The rail grant also builds on $34 million announced earlier this year for a 110-acre cargo staging area, rail facilities and barge dock improvements.


Railroad officials say construction could start in May 2027 and finish as early as 2029, depending on a federal environmental review and the timing of funding. The grant requires a $62 million local match: AIDEA will cover about half, and the borough will contribute land and gravel.


For the Mat-Su, this is a real shot at becoming an industrial and export hub, not just a place people commute from.


5. Alaska LNG: big upside, big "if"


Alaska LNG would bring North Slope gas to Southcentral, which needs new supply, and later export LNG to Asia.


  • Phase One: a 739-mile, 42-inch pipeline for in-state gas, with first gas targeted for 2029. Glenfarne says it has gas-supply agreements with North Slope producers sufficient for a Phase One investment decision.

  • Phase Two: export facilities at Nikiski able to ship up to 20 million tonnes of LNG a year. The full system includes an 807-mile pipeline.

  • Ownership: developer Glenfarne holds 75%, and the State of Alaska holds 25%. Officials say the federal government may also take a stake.


Glenfarne aims to contract 16 million tonnes a year of exports to finance the project. As of February, it had 13 million tonnes under preliminary agreements with buyers including JERA, Tokyo Gas and TotalEnergies. Preliminary agreements are not binding sales contracts.


Governor Dunleavy has warned that Alaska is running out of affordable, reliable natural gas. He has also pitched the line as a source of industrial power at about five cents per kilowatt-hour.


It isn't a done deal. Glenfarne hasn't made a final investment decision and now estimates the project could cost up to $55 billion. In August, the Legislature declined to reconvene on a property tax break Glenfarne sought. In October, President Trump called Alaska LNG a federal government project and announced investments from South Korea (more than $50 billion) and Taiwan (about $4.4 billion, plus 6 million tonnes a year of LNG purchases). Both countries say they are still reviewing or negotiating, and neither commitment is binding.


Why it matters: if it gets built, it's a generational project for Alaska. If it doesn't, Southcentral's gas supply problem still needs a solution, and that affects operating costs for every building we heat.


The headwinds, and where I see opportunity

Being bullish doesn't mean ignoring the hard parts:


  • Fuel costs. AAA put Alaska's diesel average at $6.45 a gallon on Nov. 4, up from $4.07 a year earlier.

  • Shipping costs. The Port of Alaska's cargo surcharge nearly doubled from 2025 to 2026, and the port director expects it to keep rising during construction.

  • Population. The state's latest estimates show Anchorage's population relatively flat, with more people leaving Alaska than moving in.

  • Federal jobs. The state's January outlook estimated about 300 federal civilian jobs lost in 2025 and forecast another 400 in 2026.

  • Big projects aren't guaranteed. Ambler and Alaska LNG both still face major hurdles.


But growth is concentrated. Census estimates show the Mat-Su added about 1,400 residents from 2024 to 2025 and grew 17% from 2015 to 2025. The state calls it the fastest-growing large area of Alaska, and it builds more than three times as many homes each year as Anchorage.


These investments don't guarantee rising rents or property values. My thesis is that they can expand the customer base for well-located commercial property, especially where infrastructure, utilities and tenant demand line up. I see the best opportunities in:


  • Industrial and flex space for oil, logistics and construction users, especially as Port MacKenzie rail moves forward

  • Medical office, with health care the biggest source of projected job growth in 2026

  • Neighborhood retail and childcare near military bases and in the Mat-Su


Short-term pain at the pump is real. The long-term story is one I'm happy to bet on. If you're thinking about buying, leasing or selling in Anchorage or the Mat-Su, let's talk.


Jenny Willardson, CCIM, Principal Broker, Elevate Commercial


Sources


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